The most recent LightBox CRE Activity Index reflected a market settling into a typical year-end slowdown amid ongoing uncertainty. The company said its December 2025 Index registered 86.9, a 13% decline from November’s 99.4, less severe than historical December pullbacks and far more moderate than the roughly 30% November-to-December drop recorded last year, when post-election uncertainty weighed heavily on activity.
In contrast to a year ago, when post-presidential election fiscal policy uncertainty weighed heavily on sentiment, the current pullback is primarily tied to “holiday-related lulls in listings, appraisals and environmental due diligence,” according to LightBox. The Index finished 49% higher than December 2024. “With election-related uncertainty largely behind the market and capital availability improving, the December decline should be interpreted as transitional rather than structural,” LightBox reported.
LightBox said its January CRE Activity Index will be an important early indicator of first-quarter 2026 momentum “as capital deployment becomes increasingly targeted, and the steady wave of loan maturities continues to bring assets to market.”
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